September 2022

Just watched a guy hitting .202 with a .618 OPS hit another homerun off of the season-opener/designated Jays ace and prize of the 2021 trade deadline, Jose Berrios. Lots of people have weighed in on why he is having a bad season with an ERA 1.3+ runs higher than before, and a FIP almost 1 run higher. Did a little digging myself and found some things of interest:

• hitters are hitting him harder than before, especially for homeruns (60% increase)
• his pitch velocities are consistent with previous years so there are no apparent issues with his arm health
• there are no real difference in pitch type/selection versus other years in his past with lower ERA/FIP statistics
• they are hitting his four-seam fastball hardest vs his other pitches (two-seam/sinker, curve, changeup)
• his mechanics (aka position on the rubber and release point) are in flux and have been on and off since 2018 where his ERA and FIP were 3.84/3.90.
• his pitches seem to be distinguishable from a batter’s perspective…and have been for several years

Maybe nothing has really changed for Jose in the past few years. Maybe that is the problem. I have seen and heard that teams can now set up VR to have hitters practice facing pitchers prior to a game. Maybe teams can now leverage the differences in his release position to take advantage and jump on his fastballs knowing that it isn’t his curve or changeup?